Election prediction

The waiting is almost over – how will Bermuda vote tomorrow?Most people I’ve spoken to – not a scientific study by any means but includes a mix of black, white, PLP and UBP – agree on one thing: it will be closer than 2003. I agree, although I can’t quite see the UBP pulling off what would be a major upset.
In fact it’s hard to see the UBP being elected in the forseeable future without a black leader, as competent as Michael Dunkley or any other leader might be.The key remains what the black, professional middle class decides to do. My sense is that many of them are angry/embarrassed/fed up with Dr. Brown. But will they vote against him? Will they still vote PLP and hope Paula Cox can stage a coup? Or will they simply not vote at all rather than vote UBP?My guess is a significant number will either not vote or switch back to UBP. However I don’t believe it will be enough to tip the balance.  My prediction: 20-16 PLP, maybe even as close as 19-17.
What’s your election prediction?